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Producers with flat-price risk open should be paying close attention

U.S. trade will be focused on the USDA's annual Ag outlook Forum scheduled for Thursday and Friday this week.

For the past three months, the new-crop DEC19 contract has essentially traded between $3.95 and $4.05 per bushel. The only really good news for producers is the fact old-crop basis has improved in some locations across the U.S.

I've personally reduced all old-crop risk by either selling cash bushels and re-owning with JUL19 calls and or a combination of bull-call spreads or simply buying ATM puts and selling calls to help finance. There's a thousand ways to go about reducing remaining old-crop risk, I just have a tough time leaving the risk "open" this late in the marketing cycle. Make certain you are considering all of your available marketing tools and discussing with your individual advisor. I just don't want to see this market lull everyone to sleep, then all of a sudden make a significant move in one direction or another. There's really not much new to report.

All eyes remain on U.S. and Chinese trade negotiations, with another round scheduled to take place this week in Washington. The weather in South America is somewhat of a non-event at the moment. I continue to hear producers in Brazil are getting a very good start to second-crop corn planting, which could bring about additional acres. There's still a ton of weather risk remaining in Brazil so we will just have to wait and see how that plays out.

Here at home, later in the week the trade will be focused on the USDA's annual Ag outlook Forum scheduled for Thursday and Friday. This will be when the USDA gives us their early thoughts on the 2019 balance sheet. There will also be a heavy wave of U.S. export data released late in the week. From what I've heard, the USDA will not be releasing their 10-year baseline projections this year at the Ag Outlook Forum.

Producers who still have "open" old-crop risk remaining, should use any rallies this week to help reduce some exposure. If we see a substantial jump to the upside, I will entertain reducing a bit more new-crop risk. 

Sign up for my daily report to find out when I will reduce more risk!

The opinions of the author are not necessarily those of Corn+Soybean Digest or Farm Progress.

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